Predictions tracker

How we track predictions

• Falsifiable only. Hedged opinions and judgment calls aren't tracked here. Only specific claims that reality can resolve.
• Status updates publicly. When a prediction resolves, this ledger updates within 24 hours of the resolution event.
• Falsified claims stay. We don't delete predictions we got wrong. Falsified entries remain visible — that's the credibility record.
• Confidence at publication. Each prediction shows the confidence level we assigned when we made it, not after the fact.
• Sourced. Every prediction links to the article where it was originally published. Click through to see the full reasoning.

Editorial standards live in our editorial policy. Corrections handled per the corrections policy.